Short answer: trading every 50/200 cross made less than simply holding gold, on every chart that produced a cross. The selling side lost money on all of them.
Read this first, what this test can and cannot tell you
- Gold only (XAUUSD), Deriv's price feed and chart candles on the UTC clock, January 2017 to September 2026 (9 years 8 months). Brokers on a different clock draw different 4-hour and daily candles; Deriv's daily chart includes a short Sunday candle.
- One precise, written definition of the concept. Your own version may differ, the exact rules are below so you can check.
- Every trade pays the broker's spread (at least 15 points, measured from real ticks). The spread around the daily reopen is wider than that, which makes results look slightly better, not worse.
- "Average per trade" is in basis points: 1 bp = 0.01% of the price (about $0.43 per 1-ounce position at $4,300).
- This is a record of what one rule did on past data. It is not advice, not a signal, and not a promise about the future.
What we tested
The 50-period average crossing the 200-period average on a closed candle (simple and exponential averages). Golden cross → buy at the next open; death cross → sell. Two ways: (1) hold for 5, 20 or 60 candles; (2) always in the market, buy at a golden cross, reverse at the death cross. Charts M1 to W1.
Holding 20 candles after each cross (simple averages)
| Chart | Signal | Crosses | Trades taken | Win rate | Average per trade (bp, after spread) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | golden → buy | 11088 | 10921 | 43.0% | -0.81 | no edge (not significant) |
| M1 | death → sell | 11089 | 10909 | 41.6% | -1.04 | no edge (not significant) |
| M5 | golden → buy | 2129 | 2101 | 49.2% | -0.16 | no edge (not significant) |
| M5 | death → sell | 2129 | 2108 | 44.4% | -1.70 | no edge (not significant) |
| M15 | golden → buy | 683 | 677 | 46.2% | +1.70 | no edge (not significant) |
| M15 | death → sell | 683 | 677 | 42.4% | -3.09 | no edge (not significant) |
| M30 | golden → buy | 345 | 344 | 50.3% | +4.57 | no edge (not significant) |
| M30 | death → sell | 345 | 341 | 39.9% | -5.72 | no edge (not significant) |
| H1 | golden → buy | 176 | 168 | 48.8% | +3.45 | too few trades to judge |
| H1 | death → sell | 177 | 170 | 41.8% | -7.23 | too few trades to judge |
| H4 | golden → buy | 49 | 48 | 56.2% | +31.58 | too few trades to judge |
| H4 | death → sell | 50 | 49 | 42.9% | -18.21 | too few trades to judge |
| D1 | golden → buy | 6 | 6 | 66.7% | +53.63 | too few trades to judge |
| D1 | death → sell | 7 | 7 | 85.7% | +267.24 | too few trades to judge |
| W1 | golden → buy | 0 | 0 | , | , | no crosses |
| W1 | death → sell | 0 | 0 | , | , | no crosses |
Always in the market vs just holding gold (bp, after spread)
| Chart | Average | Trades | System total (bp) | of which buying | of which selling | Just holding gold (bp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | SMA | 22176 | -16322 | -1753 | -14569 | +12847 |
| M1 | EMA | 21351 | -16051 | -1653 | -14398 | +12847 |
| M5 | SMA | 4257 | +6501 | +9654 | -3153 | +12818 |
| M5 | EMA | 4005 | +5399 | +9088 | -3689 | +12818 |
| M15 | SMA | 1365 | +6938 | +9838 | -2900 | +12746 |
| M15 | EMA | 1409 | +4219 | +8489 | -4270 | +12746 |
| M30 | SMA | 689 | +4445 | +8709 | -4264 | +12888 |
| M30 | EMA | 663 | +6746 | +9870 | -3124 | +12888 |
| H1 | SMA | 352 | +948 | +6909 | -5961 | +12822 |
| H1 | EMA | 334 | +1964 | +7382 | -5418 | +12822 |
| H4 | SMA | 98 | +2728 | +7740 | -5012 | +12709 |
| H4 | EMA | 84 | +6242 | +9469 | -3226 | +12709 |
| D1 | SMA | 12 | +11269 | +11614 | -345 | +12105 |
| D1 | EMA | 16 | +8038 | +9989 | -1951 | +12105 |
Every daily golden and death cross, one by one (simple averages)
| Trade | Signal | Opened | Closed | Result (bp, after spread) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | death → sell | 2018-06-15 | 2019-01-02 | +162 |
| 2 | golden → buy | 2019-01-02 | 2021-01-07 | +4064 |
| 3 | death → sell | 2021-01-07 | 2021-06-09 | +159 |
| 4 | golden → buy | 2021-06-09 | 2021-08-04 | -445 |
| 5 | death → sell | 2021-08-04 | 2021-12-28 | -8 |
| 6 | golden → buy | 2021-12-28 | 2022-01-13 | +70 |
| 7 | death → sell | 2022-01-13 | 2022-01-21 | -75 |
| 8 | golden → buy | 2022-01-21 | 2022-06-20 | -4 |
| 9 | death → sell | 2022-06-20 | 2022-12-29 | +178 |
| 10 | golden → buy | 2022-12-29 | 2023-08-22 | +480 |
| 11 | death → sell | 2023-08-22 | 2023-11-30 | -762 |
| 12 | golden → buy | 2023-11-30 | 2026-06-14 | +7448 |
How we tested
- The rules were written down and dated before the test ran; nothing was tuned afterwards.
- Signals use closed candles only; every entry is at the next candle's open. One trade at a time per version; a crossing signal that arrives while a trade is open is skipped.
- Many versions were tried, so the bar for "real" is raised to match (Bonferroni, two-sided 5%), and a result must also hold in at least 70% of years, in both halves of the sample, and beat gold's own rise over the same years.
- The same test runs on a random price series. If the random series "passes", the whole test is thrown out, and we say so. Random-series check for this test: clean (strongest random result t 2.59). From the 1-hour chart up there were too few crosses for any version to reach 250 trades.
Think we got it wrong? Show us. Send your rules, your data source and your result (form fields: your definition · timeframe · data source and dates · costs you charged · your result and sample size · a link or file). If your test holds up, we publish the correction on this page, dated, with your name if you want it.